End of 2021: Opinions on EVs

2021 has been almost the year of the EV. Well, more of the year of the 'announced EV'. This is the year that every major manufacturer has publicly committed to EV transition, by choice or by threat of firing (see: ex-BMW Kruger squandering his company's nascent EV advantages)

So what do I see as the major technological themes to completing the transition to EV that are currently important and in flux?

 

EVs are basically huge battery banks with steering wheels. The most important aspect of transportation electrification is the technological development of the battery.

Tesla's batteries, more or less the state of the art for scaled production, are currently two-tier: NMC batteries that require cobalt (the C in NMC) and nickel (the N in NMC) for all the sexy and long range vehicles, which likely won't change for the foreseeable future beyond packaging like the 4680 cell and reductions to cobalt. Sourcing of cobalt and nickel (especially cobalt) is pricey and amoral (child labor, bad conditions, etc). More importantly, for EVs to scale by a factor of 100 to supplant ICE, there just isn't the sourcing for enough NMC.

What is more interesting is their low-end Model 3 now has LFP chemistry.

LFP (L is lithium, F is Fe/Iron, P is phosphate) is a cheap, scalable, safe, near-infinitely-rechargable, wide temperature range chemistry that unfortunately is not as energy dense (and EVs are all about getting as much energy as you can into the car). However they require less cooling and other systems, so at the integrated system levels, they "catch up" to NMC cells enough to enable a cheaper 200 mile Model 3.

LFP can be very well scaled and is already in wide manufacturing. Most importantly, LFP is poised for substantial improvements in density that could bring it into range of current NMC cell density at the overall system/pack level. CATL and other chinese suppliers have roadmapped a rise from 170 Wh/kg density to 200 in 2022 and 230 after that. Higher density is also less weight, so the same energy capacity battery goes further with a smaller physical weight, or the same weight battery goes 20% to 40% further.

And cheaper, safer, better recharge cycles. All good stuff.

Higher capacity LFP also improves e-bikes, e-motorcycles, e-anything. It'll all go further. E-tools like electric lawnmowers will fall under gasoline in price, which is super important given how polluting two cycle engines are.

LFP  is the key to getting cheap batteries in a very very very wide range of applications.

EV charging infrastructure is the next big thing. Tesla has its own network. Currently based on what I can tell, it's the only network you can rely on to have functioning chargers that will connect and charge, with enough buildout.

All the other charging networks are terrible. Which is terrible news for alllll those dozens of EVs that non-Tesla makers will be pushing out.

But I do think that the EV charging infrastructure will rapidly improve on a quarterly basis. There is government oomph, it is pretty easy to get chargers installed, and you can put them basically anywhere: streets, parking garages, parking lots, gas stations, car dealerships, or dedicated sections.

EV charging is the key to filling out the map for EVs. The speed is somewhat secondary, availability and coverage is the first priority, and I think 2022 will be a big year.

Some may wonder about solid state. Solid state is still a bit hard to tell. What I've been able to discern is that it isn't too hard to make a really small cell with solid state that looks good for investors/VC and get money.  The problem is getting a cost-competitive car-sized battery scaled from the wristwatch-sized prototype, with cycles, recharge speed, temperature range, density, and cost all better than the wet cells.

Quantumscape allegedly showed a "10 layer" cell recently, but there hasn't been much "wow" in the press. Probably because the scale is still wayyyyy to small, its not near production, and who knows about the cost.

Solid state however is VERY important to all EV makers that aren't named Tesla (or maybe Lucid).  These companies are currently 3-10 years behind Tesla in technology and will have second-rate EVs for the near term. What can close the gap? A paradigm shift in battery density and cost. The only thing out there is solid state.

There are companies like Stellantis, Mercedes, and all the japanese makers and others that are WAY behind Tesla. Ford, VW, GM, and maybe BMW have made the first steps. These companies will lose major market share, or cease to exist, unless Solid State saves their bacon.  Right now, nobody knows if this will happen.

So solid state is still a bit question mark.



What's irritating about the car press is that they don't realize how almost every car manufacturer can release lots of EV models, but none of them will hit large numbers. Likely Tesla will continue to sell more EVs that all other makers combined in 2022, because 1) Tesla will scale their battery production quite a lot between Austin and Berlin factories and expansion of China, and 2) the rest of the battery supply for the other companies, all procured through suppliers, isn't that big. These are all still research/toe-dipping endeavors, even if entire "marques" like Cadillac, Hummer, and Polestar are "all electric". Well yeah, but they also won't sell anything close to what Tesla is putting out there with the model 3 and Y.

2022 should be a scale jump by Tesla. It'll be interesting to see VW and GM next, who are the next furthest along, what they scale to. As referenced above in LFP though, Tesla is the only western car maker that has the drivetrain efficiency tech to do LFP. Maybe Lucid does as well,  but they are so so so so small right now.